Published at Sunday, February 17th, 2019 - 04:22:32 AM. House. By .
The Family - The People of the Astrological Houses : The most important thing that we do in our experience is to relate with one another. To not be able to relate successfully makes life very difficult for many. I have done thousands and thousands of sky maps for thousands of people over my long years of being a professional astrologer. Probably the single thing that was most important to the person being read was relationships of all varieties. At the end of life, relationships or the lack of them were what was valued most, regretted most and controlled the end of life circumstance the most. At the core of relationship issues are the initial and primary relationships we form with our early family. Here is where our values are established and developed to become the basis for the relationships we build for ourselves in our future. As we mature, we form our own individual family circles plus a myriad of other relationships into which we enter. Family is where we begin our journey to understand and develop all relationships. In previous articles I have written about the parental axis, the 4th/10th houses of any sky map, as well as the individual maternal and paternal roles. However, the family is not just our parents or lack of them. Each of us has a long, rich history within our family, good guys and bad guys. There is a genetic heritage. Yes we can see the physical characteristics that are handed down through the gene pool. But there is far more than what we inherit from our families on other levels. I am exploring this family astrological heritage step by step through a series of articles. Any sky map is constructed with the earth (on which we all exist) in the center and the cosmic energy pattern existing around that central core. If we were on the Moon, sky maps would be constructed with the Moon in the center. On Mars, Mars would be in the center, etc. The wheel shape is called the chart and the divisions are called houses. There are 12 divisions of the houses just as there are 12 sign divisions for the zodiac. The signs show mannerisms, expressions and are descriptive in nature. The houses illustrate 12 compartments or arenas of physical experience. Each of those twelve houses therefore must contain numerous issues and also the people in your life. The whole of the wheel maps the whole of your life, every single thing. The trick is to learn to read that sky map successfully, which can be more involved than it seems. Our focus for this article will be on the people represented by the houses, particularly the members of your family. Houses General house information will help us reach the point where we can see the validity of the people representations. Remember that the 12 houses begin with the ascendant and are listed counter-clockwise from that point around the wheel. Psychologist Carl Jung divided human expression into four categories: intuition, emotion, sensation, and thought. In brief: · The left half of the wheel (rising planets) represents the development or the interests of self. · The right half of the wheel (setting planets) represents involvement with others or the interests of others. · The bottom half of the wheel represents the time from dusk to dawn, the introspective, internalized, reflective self. · The top half of the wheel represents the time from dawn to dusk, the externalized, participatory, extroverted self. · The four angles of the house wheel represent the point of beginning for each of the four quadrants of the chart. · The general activity of all four chart quadrants are in this order from the Yung perspective: intuition, emotion, sensation, thought. · The ascendant is the angle that begins the personal, subjective first three houses of intuition (1, 2, 3). · The IC or 4th cusp is the angle that begins the subjective, other involved next three houses of emotion (4, 5, 6). · The descendant is the angle that begins the external, other involved three houses of sensation (7, 8,9). · The midheaven is the angle that begins the external, self-interest three houses of thought (10, 11, 12). These few sentences describe the hemisphere and quadrature influence of houses. In addition, · The angular house for each quadrant is dynamic active, visible, directly related to the individual. · The succeedent house follows the angular house in each quadrant (succeeds the angle) and represents establishing, building, formalization of that quadrants issues. · The cadent house follows the succeedent house and represents adaptation and promotion. · In brief, the angular house activates, the succeedent house formalizes, the cadent house promotes the issues of a quadrant. · The round of the three types of houses begins again at the next angle. There is one more explanation of the cadent house that will help you understand its role better. Adaptation is the key word here because the dynamic influence of the angle is followed by the establishment influence of the succeedent house, which is a logical sequence for experience. However, it would be difficult to move from building brick by brick (establishment) to the dynamic activity of an angle because form would tend to resist the initiation of something new. The cadent houses bridge this gap between the establishing principal of one grouping of three houses (quadrature). and the dynamic principal at the beginning of the next grouping of three houses (quadrature). Using this rationale: · The 3rd house bridges (adapts) the subjective self-aware first quadrant as it encounters the subjective awareness of others or emotional quadrant initiated by the 4th house. Intuition gives way to emotion. · The 6th house bridges (adapts) the subjective awareness of others quadrant as it encounters the objective awareness of others or sensation quadrant initiated by the 7th house. Emotion gives way to sensation. · The 9th house bridges (adapts) the objective awareness of others quadrant as it encounters the objective awareness of self or thought quadrant initiated by the 10th house. Sensation gives way to thought. · The 12th house bridges (adapts) the objective awareness of self quadrant as it encounters the subjective awareness of self or intuition quadrant initiated by the 1st house. Thought gives way to intuition. · The cadent houses are therefore key to understanding the point of flux, adaptation, bridging within the chart and are definitely more important than surface reading would indicate. If you will add this information on the houses with what you already know about the houses, this material should add a layer to your understanding. Read slowly and re-read as necessary. People of the Houses Who are the people represented by the houses? Everyone in your life is in that wheel somewhere. We will begin with the four angles and the technique we will use is the derivative house system or what I call wheeling the houses. Self Many are aware that the cusp of the first house is called the ascendant and represents the physical presence of the person or entity represented by that sky map. Much of the descriptive reading about a person comes from that cusp and that house as well as that persons personal projection, response to its environment and coping skills. This is how the world sees us, through the filter of the sign on the ascendant and the planets in the first house. In brief, the first house and its cusp represents the most personal point of the physical self, the me point of the wheel. Partner Diametrically opposed to the ascendant is the descendant or 7th house. This is the point of the chart that is farthest from the point of self and may be described as the not self or the shadow self. This point represents the qualities we do not want to embrace and that we project onto another (partner). It is interesting that this represents the point of committed or contractual partnerships whether those relationships are personal (such as marriage) or business (such as partnership). Our committed partner is supposed to represent all the things we do not choose to express. What action do we do at this cusp? We commit to a person, walk into a house, lock the door behind us and attempt collectively to turn the house into a home. The way to a successful conclusion is to learn from that partner and embrace our own lesson. That way we can be with a person because we choose to, not because we must go to school with them as teacher. Parents The 4th/10th axis (cusps) represents our parents (or lack of them), the parental roles themselves. I want to back up for a moment and mention that this pair of houses is called the security axis and represents our internal and our external security needs. Our parents are supposed to fulfill that role or to at least prepare us for that role. There is a great deal of controversy as to which parent belongs in which of the two houses. I did cover that concept in three previous articles so I will not repeat that information here. Briefly, the 4th house parents job is to offer internal, subjective security, also known as the family. The 10th house parents job is to offer or prepare us for external, objective security, also known as making our way in the world successfully. Some people get lucky and the parents fulfill their roles well. Some people are not so lucky because dysfunction exists which can cause the individual lifelong problems. Not every parent is equipped for the role they have chosen. Some people take the lemons they received from their particular spin of the parental wheel and they make lemonade. I encourage that. So far we have ourselves (ascendant), our partner (descendant), our parents (both, either, or). What about all the other people that comprise our families? Where can they be found in the wheel? Grandparents The parents have been shown to be the 4th (and its axis partner 10th) from the 1st house of self. Where are the parents of your parents? They must be located in the 4th house from your parent cusp. You always count starting with the house you are questioning, such as the 4th house parent. Put your finger on that house counting one then count forward (counter-clockwise) one house at a time until you reach the 4th house of that 4th parent. That would be the 7th house. The same action would be taken for the 10th house parent but it is unnecessary to repeat the exercise, just look to the axis partner of the 7th or the 1st (you). So your grandparents (you have four) are found on the ascendant/ descendant axis. There are only two houses in this count, so two grandparents belong in one house and two belong in the other. It will take a little work on your part to sort this out, but this is where you go to find the answers. You will probably have genetic hand-me-downs from your grandparents. Two will have great similarities to you, those who are represented by the 1st house and ascendant. Two will seem less related as they occupy your 7th house of not-self. That probably is part of the generation gap. Physical and non-physical characteristics from those grandparents will evidence in you just as you will pass on certain characteristics to your grandchildren. My deceased fathers contribution to my kids and my grandkids is a specific sense of humor. My mothers love for dancing and music has shown up as well in my kids and my grandkids as has my paternal grandmothers beautiful singing voice. My parents and their parents are alive and well in the genetic contribution they gave us all within our family. Thank you for the gifts. Partners parents and grandparents What if you marry? The 7th house will describe your partner and your marriage. It should tell you what and who you are looking for, what you want someone else to do in place of you, and what you are not comfortable with within yourself. At times you are grateful. At other times you will fight the process (and the person). That partner has parents and so those parents will be the 4th from the 7th (and its partner) and we are again back to the 4th/10th axis in the chart. Hmmm. So far we are getting a large number of people in very few houses. Perhaps that will help explain why astrologers concentrate on the angular houses. Hang in there, we will move outside the 4th/10th axis shortly. Your spouse has grandparents (4) as well and they will be shown by the 4th of the parent or the ascendant/descendent axis. Getting crowded isnt it? Again, this can take some effort but this is where you begin. Multiple Partnerships All committed relationships are a 7th house issue. It illustrates what you are seeking in a partner because you are avoiding it as yourself. What if you have more than one marriage or partnership? To differentiate, skip the 8th house and go to the 9th house. 7th/9th illustrate your second committed relationship. Skip the 10th and go to the 11th. The 7th/11th is your third committed relationship. More? Busy little beaver arent you? Do the same routine: skip/choose. Just skip a house, go to the next one and join it to 7th. This combination should describe each individual person it represents. Children of all varieties Children are thought to be a 5th house issue. These would be natural children of the body (kids) or the mind (creativity). The oldest child is also described by the 5th. The second child would be the 7th along with the 5th. This 7th house child would be most like your spouse. The third child would be the 9th along with the 5th, and so forth around the chart. If you were to have 5 children, the 5th child would be most like you because that child would be represented by the 5th and the 1st houses. Children of your spouse, adopted children, fostering of children are each represented by your 11th house. Same procedure, maintain the base house but do the skip/choose procedure for each individual. Spouses of your children would be shown by the 7th (partner) of the 5th and additional house influence (child). One last child that may be found in the 5th house could be small pets. Large animals such as horses or elephants are read from the 12th house. We all know people who treat their pets as a child with wraps or costumes, who may eat from your plate, considered a member of the family, be the recipient of lots of baby talk, etc. I am not talking about the ordinary affectionate position of a pet within a family. There should be plenty of emotion and caring for any pet. As you know, some pet owners go beyond even that. With some you may find the 5th house is active or gives a better description of their pet, particularly if there are no natural children or are there are children but they are not available to the person. The pet becomes their child. Grandchildren A child of your child, your grandchild, is the 5th house from the 5th house or the 9th house for all grandchildren and particularly the first one. Again the skip/choose procedure applies for each additional grandchild The child of your spouse belongs with the 5th from the 7th or the 11th house as its base and skip/choose applies here as well. Siblings and Partners Do you have siblings? They are a 3rd house issue, all of them. However, we must differentiate for individuality. All siblings and particularly the oldest one are 3rd house. The next in age is the 3rd and the 5th in combination. The next in age is the 3rd and the 7th in combination. Each succeeding sibling would maintain the 3rd and add the next 2nd house skip/choose jump (skip the 8th and go to the 9th). This is how you would look at siblings in general and specific siblings in particular. The partners of your siblings are shown by the house opposite the one chosen for that sibling. Siblings of Spouse and Their Partners If you were seeking information on the siblings of your spouse, look to the 3rd of the 7th, which is the 9th. This is often referred to as the general in-law house as well. Again the 9th would be all siblings of your spouse particularly the oldest one. Do the same skip count as your own direct siblings, the second oldest sibling of your spouse would be the 9th/11th, and so forth. The partners of your partners siblings are showy by the house opposite the one chosen for the siblings of the spouse. Cousins, Aunts and Uncles of all varieties Cousins fall into the same house arrangement as your siblings (3rd). A spouses cousins fall into the same house arrangement as their siblings (9th). Your own aunts and uncles have their basis in the 6th house, same counting arrangement. Your spouses aunts and uncles have their basis in the 12th house, same counting arrangement. In Brief We have looked at the generalities of the houses to establish a reasonable base for understanding our relationships with others, specifically those we consider our family. We then moved on to the relationships we form and how to find them in the wheel. You must start with yourself because you will always be one end of any relationship possibility in your own life. The other end will be one of a number of relatives. In brief: · siblings and cousins = 3rd house · parents = 4th/10th houses · grandparents = 1st/7th houses. · natural children = 5th house · foster or adopted children = 11th house · spouses of your natural children = 11th house · aunts and uncles = 6th house · spouse or partner = 7th house · spouses children = 11th house · grandchildren and in-laws in general = 9th house · multiples of births or marriage are delineated by the skip/choose house count . Obviously you will have more and different kinds of relationships as we have explored only the family in this article. Please re-read this article as many times as necessary to clarify. This technique is not the easiest task to do and it will take you a little time to learn. For additional assistance look to articles or information on derivative house systems. Recommended reading: the three previous articles in this series • Where do You Find Mom and Dad in a Chart? The Parental Axis • Parents - Who and Where is Mom in a Chart? - The Maternal Issues • Parents - Who and Where is Dad in a Chart? Marilyn Muir, author, Presidents of Hope and Change: Bringing Hope to our Future by Reaching into our Astrological Past. How astrology predicts our nations future by reaching into our past. Jefferson, Lincoln, Kennedy, Obama... The Lineage of Hope Using the influential and interwoven cycles of Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune, Uranus and Pluto to predict issues and trends up to 2012 and even beyond to 2025, Ms Muir leaves us with the clear message of hope as she depicts the future of President Obama at the helm of the USA ship of state. Read the first 36 pages (PDF) including the charts of all four Presidents - youll get hooked!
The Macro-Dynamics of the US and the Canadian Housing Markets: An Analytical Comparison Introduction: This article examines three key fundamental questions: (1)-Would the US housing market face any reversal given what is happening in the US and global economy? (2)-As predicted by some pundits, would the Canadian economy undergo any serious correction? (3)-What are the key macroeconomic factors which impact the Canadian and the US housing markets? And using this framework what predictions can we make both for short and long term trends of real estate markets? The US Housing Market: Its Evolution from Crisis (2007-2008) to Present: The US housing bubble was created by Steroids Banking using Securitization process and taking advantage of low interest rates and massive inflow of investment money from abroad. The housing prices in most regions almost doubled 2001 to 2006; and subprime lending escalated astronomically. The private Mortgage banks were applying their creativity and greed in designing highly risky esoteric mortgage products using the Securitization process. What is Securitization? Put simply this is packaging of mortgages (including subprime) into structured products (Mortgage backed securities, Collateralized debt obligations). The manufacturing mortgage bank then removes these esoteric products from its balance sheets to minimize any risks and sells these products to institutional investors using SIV (Structured investment vehicles). The buyers of these products erroneously assumed that the underlying mortgages of these securities were safe collateral given upward trending housing market. However, when subprime mortgages defaulted and housing market began to sink, these structured products built around defaulting mortgages fell sharply in value, thereby freezing the entire global credit system. Added to this turmoil was dilution of commercial paper because of potential default of big lending institutions. The global financial system was under siege. Ironically, the Credit default swaps, which mean to insure against default of these mortgages collapsed under their own weight, thereby reinforcing the Credit crisis. The US Treasury and the Fed intervened and injected trillions of dollars to save the collapsing US Housing and Banking system. This crisis is a classic example of Moral Hazard issue. Who was responsible for over-leveraging the system beyond its buoyancy point? Technically the Mortgage banks had packaged the mortgages and passed on the risks to the institutional investors. The institutional investors made the wrong assumption that the US housing market will move North forever. The Fed and other institutions did not have a proper regulatory-monitoring structure as envisioned in the BASEL guidelines to avert such over-leveraging. Nobody knew who will be responsible if the edifice collapses. Worst of all, the institutional investors assumed wrongly that the Credit default swaps (CDS) instruments would work miracles; and bail out defaulting mortgages. This is known as Moral hazard problem. Ultimately everybody was looking forward to the Fed and the Treasury to bail out the global financial system from reaching the doomsday. The US Housing Market in the aftermath of Crisis: The Mortgage Delinquency Rate (MDR) is a key metric that speaks of the real fallout of the US housing crisis (2007-2008). It measures the percentage change in delinquency of residential loans. In June 2007, the MDR was 2.17% and reached its highest level in March 2011 at 11.36%. It recovered back to 2008 levels at 10.4% recently. MDR is a key lagging indicator that reflects economic difficulties. Another key metric reflecting the state of housing health in the US is the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index. This is an index reflecting change in housing prices of 20 (and 10) key US metropolitan areas. The home prices in April 2012 for 20-city composite have reached the level existing in the start of 2003. In April 2012, the home prices have declined about 34-35% from its peak level in 2006. The main reason for a stagnant US housing market as evidenced from the MDR data is a fragile labor market. Slow job growth rate is due to weak consumer spending, which is the 70% component of real GDP and key driver of job creation in the US. Consumer spending is directly related to job growth rate, the saving rate and the consumer confidence. In an uncertain environment, spending falls and both the US dollar and saving rate increases. Although savings are recycled by the intermediaries as investments for businesses, this does not necessarily translate onto investment spending and GDP growth. Companies in a high risk environment aim to trim their balance sheets by paying off their debts, a process called as deleveraging. They do not want to burden their balance sheets by borrowing from banks. This deleveraging process slows down the level of investment in the economy thereby indirectly moderating the job growth rate. Deleveraging also runs counterproductive to low interest rates and impedes growth in jobs and therefore fast recovery of real estate prices. Why the Canadian housing market is not poised for a serious correction? The Canadian Mortgage system is more robust and conservative than the one prevailing in the US. First of all, the Canadian subprime market is only 5% of total outstanding mortgages whereas during its peak years 2004-2006, the US subprime market captured 25% of total outstanding US mortgages. The Canadian mortgage system executes better risk management tools including limited exposure to securitization and tight lending practices backed by insurance mortgage. The recent changes in the Mortgage lending have further tightened the belts to avoid any risks to healthy housing in Canada. The supply and demand conditions in Canada are monitored by all players actively. There is a great degree of transparency and authenticity in the housing data and practices. Supply dovetails both current and future demand leaving little room for creation of bubbles. Remember bubbles happen when there is a huge undiscovered lag between supply and demand. For example, there is an anticipated constraint of commercial real estate supply in the wake of surging demand both in Toronto area and Western Canada. A large number of Canadians are currently disillusioned by lower and volatile investment returns in the core financial assets, stocks and bonds. The ongoing volatility in the Capital markets is expected to last in the next few years, given some long lasting problems like risks of Sovereign debt crisis in Europe & the US. This situation has mobilized a great number of people to invest in real estate as most viable alternative investment in the wake of record low interest rates. This process might continue for some years as the core financial assets (stocks, bonds and mutual funds) may not pick up momentum soon. The concept of a bubble is not quite relevant in the context of the Canadian housing market. This is explained in terms of a typical sales cycle witnessed in Toronto and other places in Canada. The sales cycle woven around tighter demand-supply conditions mitigates the probability of bubbles. For example, in Toronto, condos are sold or flipped by investors, who generally do not live in those condos. When interest rates would inch up in future, these investors will find it difficult to keep highly expensive condos. They will sell these condos putting downward pressure on prices of the condominium market. Intuitively, the falling prices will give opportunity to new immigrants and other investors to purchase condos, as they could not previously afford it. This process is further strengthened by different ethnic groups who support their new immigrant friends and families toward the purchase of their first homes in Canada. Overall these processes would push prices upwards again. To conclude, given these tight supply-demand conditions, the chances of any serious correction are quite minimal in Toronto. What are the Macroeconomic factors which impact the prices of Real Estate? Interest Rates and Inflation: Interest rate is the price of money. It is determined by supply and demand of loanable funds. However the countrys Central bank can greatly influence the rate by tightening credit conditions or making those relaxed by pumping money into the system. This is typically done through Monetary Policy and open Market operations. Lower rates make it cheaper for potential buyers to borrow money and make purchases. It also helps current homeowners to refinance their homes and save money. All this will lead to stronger demand for mortgages and housing. Increasing rates will have the opposite effect and dampen the level of sales activity in the Mortgage market. Carry forward trades, borrowing at lower rates in one region and investing it in other, also indirectly impact real estate. For example, foreign institutional investors can borrow money overseas at cheaper rates and invest in Canadian real estate market. More important, real interest rates equal nominal rates minus inflation. Rising level of inflation will lower the real interest rates and declining levels will inflate real rates. Inflation typically feeds into asset prices including real estate. Tightening of money supply is done to control inflation, and this process leads to rising interest rates. Easing of money supply is done to trigger growth and this is accompanied with declining interest rates. However greater supply of money and rising oil prices (supply side) feed into inflation and ultimately inflates asset prices. Economic Growth, Consumer spending and Employment level: Economic growth is measured by growth in the real GDP. Slowdown in economic growth-both global and regional-raises fears of deflation or declining prices, which does not bode well with overall economic affluence. Deflation can be compared to freezing of an economy. Japan experienced sustained recession due to deflation for a long period. Fear of deflation due to declining growth can have negative impact on the real estate market. Labor Market dynamics and in particular the level of unemployment has a critical relationship to the health of the housing sector. Rising unemployment during recession is often accompanied with low housing demand and mortgage delinquencies. For example, when Enron crisis erupted, there was general softening in the regional housing market. Another example is the current state of the US housing market. Economists say that the slow pace of housing recovery is attributed to a stagnant US labor market, which is stuck up at over 8% of unemployment rate. Consumer spending plays a key role in the US while the export sector plays an important role in China. As well in Canada, consumer spending has correlation to the GDP growth. In case of the US, Consumer spending constitutes 70% of GDP and is therefore most important driver of GDP growth rate. Higher consumption level, driven by consumer confidence levels, leads to greater economic (job creation) activity and ultimately translates into greater demand for housing. Surging consumer debt, as it is happening in Canada, is also not healthy for a sustainable consumption and GDP growth. Over-leveraged consumers do not have the capacity to absorb shocks like layoffs or increase in interest rates & inflation. Institutional Capacity of Economy to absorb External shocks: The housing crisis of 2007-2008 contaminated the global financial system. The Fed and G-7 countries had to undertake unprecedented bail out measures to save the global financial system from getting derailed. Fortunately, the Canadian housing market was resilient enough to absorb the shocks and did not sink. This happened because of a relatively conservative mortgage system prevailing in Canada. Regulatory measures also impact the resilience of the housing market. For example, tax credits in the US had triggered growth of the housing sector in the aftermath of crisis. Canada has applied its regulations to keep the housing sector strong and healthy. Demographics and Migration: These play an important role in shaping the long term prospects of the real estate market. In Canada and the US, the aging population of baby boomers will create more demand for residential and vacation homes in the next decade. International migration to Canada is also an important determinant of housing market in Canada. Technology, Oil-Commodities boom and Exports: The Canadian economic and housing activity is also impacted by three external forces: Chinese Investors, Oil-commodities prices and economic activity in the US. The Western Canada is impacted by the level of Chinese and foreign investments, mainly in the Mining and Oil sector. The Eastern region, mainly Ontario and Quebec, is impacted by the level of exports to the US and therefore indirectly on the state of the US economy. Stronger Canadian dollar does not augur well for exporters. Overall, the Canadian economy and dollar are strengthened by rising demand for Oil and commodities. National Level of debt: In the US, the national level of debt is reaching about $14 trillion and will continue to grow in the years to come. National debt piles up due to persistent fiscal deficits in the economy. In the US, there is a challenge of twin deficits-both fiscal deficit and external imbalances. The twin deficits not only lead to faster growth of national debt but trigger anticipation of higher interest rates and inflation. This happens through the following mechanism: Higher debt in the US is monetized by either selling bonds to China (or other surplus countries) or by printing money from thin air. In either case it leads to greater risks and consequently higher interest rates, fast depreciating currencies and therefore more inflation. Some economists say that if debt is not contained by the US policy-makers, we may enter an era of hyperinflation where all asset prices (including real estate) will become very costly. Applying Macroeconomic Framework to analyze current & future trends: (I)-Current Global Economic Outlook: The global economic growth is expected to moderate in 2012 (and perhaps 2013). Concomitantly, the global real estate market is cooling down a bit. The moderation in growth is spread unequally across different geographical regions. In the US, which been the central point of housing crisis, there is some improvement in key housing indicators. Given sustained low rates, minimal probability of deflation (freezing of economy) and complete preparations by European Central Bank to cope with Eurozone debt crisis-there is less likelihood of any major reversal to the US economic fundamentals and therefore the housing market. The key emerging Global housing trends are captured in the following summary: (A)-The battered US housing market is relatively stable, with less increase in foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies. The US market is currently an ideal buyers market. However, there will be a substantial lag time before we can witness a complete turnaround in the US housing market. (B)-The vibrant Canadian housing market is generally perceived to be ready for some correction in 2012 and 2013. Chart V shows key housing trends in Canada. (C)-The European housing market is (and will in future) undergoing a degree of correction. This stems from recent fiscal crisis in Europe as well as fragility of the German economy exposed recently. The housing market in the emerging global economies is also cooling down a bit. (II)-Some Predictions using the Macroeconomic Framework: The short term perspective of the Canadian housing market might witness come corrections in 2012 and 2013, but as argued in this paper this will be minimal. Also, as argued further, the commercial real estate market will stay steady and strong in 2012 and 2013 in Canada. Given the complex interplay of global economic forces and what is happening in the Eurozone and the US in terms of debt crisis, it is rather difficult to make any certain long term predictions. However, growing complexity warrants a more holistic inter-market analysis to predict about the real estate trends. The seven key global economic trends of the next decade can help us understand the future real estate prospects as well. These seven trends are as follows: (1)-The bubble of Sovereign debt crisis in the US and Europe will last for sometimes, at least next decade. Governments in this part of the world are running unsustainable massive debts, which will ultimately put an upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. (2)-The clear outcome of (1) above will be depreciating value of currencies. (3)-Another consequence of (1) above will be fragile and volatile bonds and stock markets. (4)-Commodities, gold and some alternative investments will become attractive as they will be perceived to store real value. Currencies, stocks and bonds will depreciate fast. (5)-Inflation will be triggered by massive monetization of debt (printing currency from thin air). This situation may be exacerbated if China pulls out trillion of dollars of US bond purchases it made in the last decade; and if oil prices continue to move north. (6)-Demographic trends entail growth of baby boomers in North America and Europe leading to migration to North America. (7)-The US dollar will not evaporate because of spectacular performance of the US companies and technological advancement in North America. Given these seven key economic trends of the next decade, the housing market will stay vibrant and steady in Canada and the US. Baby boomers, foreign investors and immigrants will continue to play a critical role in strengthening the housing demand in North America. Hyperinflation, as worst case scenario, might pull down demand of assets because it would stoke prices of those assets including real estate. At this stage, however, it cannot be predicted whether the European and the US governments will take concrete measures to contain their debts and put in place sustainable debt management policies. Future events will unravel the political commitment of these governments. At this stage, one thing is certain: the current debt monetization policy of these governments is not sustainable in the long run.
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